Is There Really a Tax-Preparer Supply Crisis? What the Data Show

2026-07-083 min read

Last reviewed: July 16, 2026.

The claim that Denver produces 600 accounting graduates while 2,000 tax preparers retire every year sounds precise. It is also unsupported by the public sources we reviewed.

BLS does not publish a Denver tax-preparer retirement count, and an accounting graduate is not automatically a tax preparer. The earlier version of this article also mixed occupation counts, unverified AI forecasts, and assumed gig-work conversions into a single “supply gap.” That was not a defensible calculation.

What is supported

The Denver-Aurora-Centennial metro had 23,290 accountants and auditors in May 2024. BLS reported a mean wage of $66,870 for the narrower tax-preparer occupation but withheld its local employment estimate; the dataset also excludes self-employed workers. BLS Denver occupational data

Nationally, BLS projects about 124,200 accountant-and-auditor openings per year from 2024 through 2034. Many are replacement openings caused by people changing occupations or leaving the labor force, including retirement. That category is much broader than tax preparation and does not prove a Denver shortage. BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook

AICPA reported in 2025 that accounting graduate supply continued to contract, while three-quarters of responding public accounting firms that recruited in 2024 planned to hire at least as many people in 2025. AICPA cautioned that low firm response prevented a reliable national graduate-hiring estimate. AICPA 2025 Trends summary

The IRS counted 872,363 people with current 2026 PTINs and 68,177 enrolled agents as of July 1, 2026. These totals overlap with other credentials and do not measure job vacancies, but they show that EAs are a relatively narrow subset of paid preparers. IRS preparer statistics

What the data do not promise

These sources do not establish:

2,000 annual Denver preparer retirements
a 1,400-person local supply gap
automatic client demand for a new EA
future price increases or six-figure income
a guaranteed increase in complex returns caused by AI

Replacement demand in a broad occupation can coexist with difficult entry-level hiring, seasonal hours, automation, or a local mismatch between skills and openings.

A practical conclusion

The evidence supports investigating tax as a career, not declaring a gold rush. A useful test is to study individual-tax fundamentals, talk with local firms about supervised seasonal roles, and compare the PTIN, AFSP, and EA paths before spending heavily.

The 2026 EA exam costs $317 per part, and the IRS examination route also requires a PTIN, Form 23, and a suitability check. The credential provides federal representation authority; it does not provide clients or substitute for experience.

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Bernice prepared her client's 2025 tax return on January 30, 2026. The client, Rudolf, had claimed three children as his dependents, claiming EITC based on the three children, and also claimed head of household status. Bernice didn't ask any questions about the children, or collect any documents. Rudolf's return was later audited by the IRS, and it was discovered that he had claimed his girlfriend's children, who were not related to him (Rudolf and his girlfriend are not married). All of the EITC credits for the three children, and the HOH status on Rudolf's return were disallowed. What kind of penalty can apply to Bernice, the preparer of the return in this case?

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Keep building this concept · 3 related guides

The Supply-Demand Case for the Enrolled Agent Credential—Without the HypeNational labor data supports continued demand for tax work, but viral retirement and local-graduate estimates do not. Here is the source-checked case for the EA path.Is the EA Really 3% of a Bachelor's Degree? A Source-Checked ComparisonThe EA can be a much faster credential than a second degree, but the viral 3% comparison hides important assumptions. Here is the honest math using current IRS and college-pricing data.The AI Spending Boom Does Not Prove Your Tax Career Is ObsoleteAI investment is enormous, but there is no defensible equation converting infrastructure spending into a required number of displaced workers. Current Census, BLS, and IRS evidence tells a more careful story.

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